First Insights: US: June Employment Recap

Research evidence excerpt

First Insights: US: June Employment Recap

Global Markets Research

2 July 2026First Insights

Economics - North America

Research Analysts

US: June Employment Recap North America Economics

Ruchir Sharma - NSI

• Job gains slowed to 57k in June (Nomura: 70k, Consensus: 113k), along with 74k of ruchir.sharma@nomura.com

negative revisions to the prior two months. The deceleration was largely driven by +1 212 667 9186

negative payback after unsustainable strength in past months. Beyond the monthly Jeremy Schwartz - NSI

noise, underlying employment growth remains solid. jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com

• The unemployment rate declined to 4.2% (4.189% unrounded). Broader details of the +1 212 667 9637

household survey were weak though – there was a sharp decline in the labor force Aichi Amemiya - NSI

and household survey employment, and labor force flows were not consistent with aichi.amemiya@nomura.com

declining slack. We are optimistic on the medium-term outlook for unemployment, but +1 212 667 9347

today’s print appears to be more like noisy data rather than the start of a sustainable

improvement.

• Average hourly earnings growth picked up to 0.35% m-o-m from 0.27% in May.

However, some of the strength was driven by a composition effect. Overall, wage

growth continues to edge down, albeit gradually.

• Overall, today’s report is noisy, but dovish on the margin. Slowing NFP growth should

ease concerns over cyclical overheating, while household survey details cast doubt on

a declining u-rate. The lack of stress in labor data will likely leave officials focused on

the inflation outlook, where upside risks have moderated.

Headline NFP slowed to 57k in June, below consensus but closetoourexpectationof

70k. There were negative revisions of 74k to the prior two months, bringing the 3m