US Economic Weekly

Research evidence excerpt

US Economic Weekly

Global Markets Research

2 July 2026US Economic Weekly

Economics - North America

Research Analysts

Taskmasters North America Economics

Aichi Amemiya - NSI

• HeadlineNFPslowedto57kinJune, below consensus but closetoourexpectation aichi.amemiya@nomura.com

of70k. The unemployment rate declined to 4.2%; however, broader details of the +1 212 667 9347

household survey were weak. Overall, the June report is noisy, but dovish on the Jeremy Schwartz - NSI

margin, which should ease concerns about overheating and policy tightening. jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com

+1 212 667 9637

• Chair Warsh leaned dovish at ECB’s Sintra forum, highlighting a wait and see

Ruchir Sharma - NSI approach, recognizing decreased inflation risks and reiterating his comments about

ruchir.sharma@nomura.com

disinflationary productivity. Other fedspeak this week (including from hawkish officials) +1 212 667 9186

suggests tightening is unlikely in the near term.

• Chair Warsh is likely to announce members of the Fed’s five task forces next week.

Former BOE Governor Mervyn King, a longtime skeptic of forward guidance and the

Fed’s dot plot, is likely to co-chair the task force on Fed’s communication.

June NFP – noisy, but dovish on net

Jobgainsslowedto57kinJune (Nomura: 70k, Consensus: 113k). There were also

downward revisions of 74k to the prior two months, bringing the 3m average pace down to

111k (Fig.1).

As we expected, the slowdown was largely driven by a reversal of temporary factors that

boosted the May print (Fig.2). Leisure and hospitality employment fell 61k in June, and

was revised down by 67k over the prior two months, accounting for nearly all of the

negative revisions to headline NFP. In addition, local government employment also

retraced lower after an outsized gain in May.

Fig.