Japan equity weekly (2 July 2026)

Research evidence excerpt

Japan equity weekly (2 July 2026)

Global Markets Research

Japan equity weekly (2 July 2026) 2 July 2026

EQUITY: JAPAN STRATEGY

Overconcentration in AI looks to be running its course, selling Research Analysts

to fund ETF dividends now under spotlight Macro strategy

Tomochika Kitaoka - NSC

Examining particular supply-demand conditions, positioning of Japanese equities amid tomochika.kitaoka@nomura.com

yen depreciation, Tankan forecasts versus listed company guidance +81 3 6703 1815

Masaki Motomura - NSC

Growing interest in particular supply-demand conditions in late June–early July masaki.motomura@nomura.com

In recent years we have frequently seen news stories about expectations for renewed +81 3 6703 1119

investment fund inflows from individuals using dividend payments following AGMs in late Naoya Fuji - NSC

June and about concerns over sales ahead of ETF dividend payments in early July ( naoya.fuji@nomura.com

Figure1). In particular, sales to raise funds for mandatory ETF dividend payments on 8 +81 3 6703 1245

and 10 July are often cited as a negative for equities. However, actual data does not show Momoko Nakada - NSC

any evidence of declines in Japanese equities around early July (Figure2). This is momoko.nakada@nomura.com

because market corrections are likely to take place before early July assuming an efficient +81 3 6703 1100

market, and the data show that selling to fund ETF dividends tend to be spread out over Tomoharu Kurosu - NSC

time. The data similarly show no evidence that the reinvestment of dividends in June acts tomoharu.kurosu@nomura.com

as a positive for equity prices. We have been monitoring a range of anomalies and +81 3 6703 3875

seasonal patterns but almost none of them have shown any reproducibility. Japan quantitative research