Energy Shock Monitor

Research evidence excerpt

Energy Shock Monitor

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

02 July 2026

Here's how we’re reading the latest activity and price data: Economic and Policy Research

• Global flights continue to lag their 2025 levels — despite tracking stronger than Nora Szentivanyi

2025 before the conflict — but the gap continues to gradually narrow, driven (44-20) 7134-7544

nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

by a sharp recovery in China. Flights in the rest of Asia continue to look weak. J.P. Morgan Securities plc

• Vehicle activity data continues to show little sign of strain, with global Maia Crook

active vehicles up modestly relative to 2025, and activity broadly following its (1-212) 622-8435

typical seasonal patterns across regions. maia.crook@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

• Global tanker imports moved broadly sideways last week, remaining Artem Fakhretdinov

below pre-conflict levels. Asia ex China and the US continue to hover around (1-212) 272-1839

their February levels, but imports in Europe have recently fallen back and artem.fakhretdinov@jpmorgan.com

China imports are showing no signs of recovery. JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

• Our Chase Card trackers of US consumer spending continue to look

constructive, remaining well above their 2025 levels.

• Fuel prices continue to lag the decline in crude oil prices. While Brent is

back to pre-conflict levels, global gasoline prices are still 16% above pre-

conflict, with the US particularly elevated (28% above).

• Jet-fuel prices are also lagging the downward move in Brent and container

shipping costs are notably still moving higher, signaling building core goods

price pressures. By contrast, fertilizer prices (urea) are now below pre-conflict.

Daily flight numbers Retail gasoline prices by region

%oya, 28d mov avg Index, 26-Feb-2026 = 100