Brazil Weekly: The ever-changing data

Research evidence excerpt

Brazil Weekly: The ever-changing data

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

02 July 2026

Brazil Weekly

The ever-changing data

See our full research on Economics: Brazil EM, Economic and Policy Research

Cassiana Fernandez

• The BCB is likely to see softer activity and inflation data between (55-11) 4950-3369

meetings, facilitating another 25bp cut cassiana.fernandez@jpmorgan.com

• Credit and labor readings reinforce the view of weak activity in May, Vinicius Moreira

leading to a GDP deceleration in 2Q (55-11) 4950-3195

vinicius.moreira@jpmorgan.com

• But sentiment indicators suggest a pickup at the turn of the quarter Mirella Sampaio

• Next week: a softer CPI release, in both the headline and its details (55-11) 4950-3289

mirella.sampaio@jpmorgan.com

Ahead of last month's decision, activity and inflation readings were high, and yet Gustavo Ribeiro

the BCB continued its calibration cycle with a 25bp cut. What the central bank is (55-11) 4950-4059

likely to receive ahead of next month's decision is a batch of softer data. This week's gustavo.ribeiro@jpmorgan.com

releases appear to corroborate that, reinforcing our view that the BCB will continue Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

cutting at the August COPOM meeting.

While the demand-side indicators of the labor market, such as the quits rate, remain

strong, both the May nationwide labor survey (PNAD) and the formal jobs payroll

(CAGED) confirm a likely deceleration in job growth in 2Q. With only a small rise

in May, new loan originations likely represented just a modest expansion in 2Q,

following two quarters of strong increases (Figure 1). This combination indicates

that GDP growth is indeed moderating, from an elevated 4.5% q/q saar in 1Q to

something close to the 2% potential rate in 2Q.