Precious Metals: Patience is a golden virtue as Fed watching now dominates again

Research evidence excerpt

Precious Metals: Patience is a golden virtue as Fed watching now dominates again

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

02 July 2026

Precious Metals

Patience is a golden virtue as Fed watching now

dominates again

• Amid a drop in buying intensity from other demand sectors for now, rate- Global Commodities Research

sensitive ETF flows have regained marginal pricing power in gold, Gregory C. Shearer

cementing a re-correlation between gold prices and real yields. (44-20) 7134-8161

• While we ultimately think the Fed will end up remaining more patient this gregory.c.shearer@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities plc

year, warding off sustained further significant downside for gold from

Ali A. Ibrahim

current levels and allowing for a recovery higher over 2H26, reduced (44-20) 3493-6438

demand forecasts point towards an overall more range-bound base case ali.ibrahim@jpmorgan.com

gold outlook in the near-term with prices averaging $4,300/oz in 3Q26 and J.P. Morgan Securities plc

$4,500/oz in 4Q26. Ananyashree Gupta

• In the near-term, despite an encouraging bounce off $4,000/oz for now, the (91-22)ananyashree.gupta@jpmchase.com6157 3627

balance of risks around this base case still skew to the downside given the J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

potential for earlier rate hikes if data were to come in hot over the balance

of the summer.

• Nonetheless, we still retain a long-term bullish outlook for gold and see

further recovery in prices coming in 2027 as structural central bank and

physical buying eventually re-strengthen as the long-term themes driving

this accumulation haven’t materially changed.

• Silver continues to transition away from the tight physical market that

drove significant outperformance last year. Overall, we see this transition