Sweden and Norway

Research evidence excerpt

Sweden and Norway

on the month but remain elevated versus a

commodity analysts reassessed the oil market's supply-de-

year ago, while electricity prices hold steady even as the

mand balance last week, lowering their Brent forecast to an

annual rate accelerates. We expect headline CPIF inflation to

average of $80/bbl in 2H26. Domestic expansion is also

decline 0.3%-pts to 1.2% oya (vs. Riksbank’s 1.3%).

underpinned by external conditions, with the global economy

appearing to be in a cyclical upturn. We still expect growth of

Inflation in Sweden is set to remain low in 2026, with CPIFaround 2.1% in 2026, driven by stronger domestic demand—

averaging just 1.0%, largely due to temporary fiscal mea-but we now see rising upside risks to this forecast. Strength-

sures—the halving of VAT on food, fuel tax cuts, and subsi-ening activity should, in turn, gradually reduce the current

dized public transport fares—which are suppressing measuredlabour-market slack.

inflation by more than 1%-pt. Excluding political measures,

underlying inflation is set to rise gradually over the year.

Incoming data point to Swedish activity entering 2Q on a sol-

Upside risks to inflation due to indirect effects from high

id footing, signalling a recovery after a 0.6% ar contraction in

energy prices have subsided but the recent weakening of the

1Q—a decline dragged down by volatile items such as gov-

SEK is offsetting some of the dampening pressures on infla-

ernment spending and fixed investment, even as consumption

tion from a strengthening of the currency in 2025.

held firm. Amid choppy GDP prints, the NIER survey offers a

steadier read on momentum: the ETI climbed 1.8 points in

Figure 2: Swedish inflation

June to its highest level since January, consistent with well-