Jamaica: Early signs of growth post Hurricane Melissa

Research evidence excerpt

Jamaica: Early signs of growth post Hurricane Melissa

Holt Williamson Latin America Economic Research J P M O R G A N(1-212) 272-1111 02 July 2026

holt.williamson@jpmchase.com

agricultural activities. Whether the necessary infrastructure can be rebuilt in time for the

2026/2027 tourism season remains an open question.

Figure 2: Tourism Arrivals

Persons, SA

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Source: J.P. Morgan, Haver

Jamaica presents supply-side GDP data by sector showing a significant deterioration from

pre-hurricane levels (using 3Q25 as baseline):

• Agriculture output (9.8% weight) saw no q/q improvement (-8.6% below pre-hurricane

levels) and worsened relative to 1Q25 (-9.7%oya). The arrival of El Niño in the fall

presents an additional downside risk to agriculture output due to stress placed on crops

and livestock from higher temperatures and decreased rainfall. El Niño is, however,

expected to disrupt the formation of hurricanes in the Atlantic given strong upper-level

wind shear and lead to a quieter hurricane season.

• Manufacturing (9.1% weight) remains 3% below its pre-hurricane benchmark but

showed major improvement in the first quarter, jumping by 12.5% q/q sa. Food, sugar,

alcoholic beverages, and tobacco products make up the majority of the manufacturing

sector. Additional production of refined petroleum products and chemicals, as well as

manufacturing related to bauxite and alumina mining, define the sector.

• Accommodation & food services (6.9% weight) plus transport and storage (4.9% weight)

are two of the sectors most directly tied to tourism. Taken together, they have seen the

largest post-hurricane declines (-19.1% and -10.1%, respectively). Monitoring these sub-

sectors in parallel with tourism arrivals should provide a strong signal on the tourism/