Argentina

Research evidence excerpt

Argentina

on-agro exports remain at

their highest level in the series (since 2003), while imports

Beneath the headline volatility, sectoral performance remains have fallen to their lowest level since July 2024 (Figure 2).

uneven. Agriculture, manufacturing, and construction YTD export gains have been driven primarily by mining

declined on a monthly basis according to JPM’s seasonal (+US$1.5bn) and oil (+US$1.2bn).

adjustment, while gains were limited to energy, mining, and

selected services. Agriculture and mining continue to anchor Figure 2: Cash-basis exports and imports

growth, expanding 10.9%oya and 17.1%oya, respectively. By US$bn, 3mma annualized, sa by J.P. Morgan

contrast, manufacturing, construction, and commerce remain Exports Imports Non-agro exports

under pressure, down -2.9%, -1.8%, and -3.2%oya (Figure 1). 95

Fishing, despite its limited weight in GDP, recorded a sharp

29%oya contraction. Services showed a mixed performance.

Figure 1: Activity breakdown 35

Feb 2020=100, sa, simple average of the sectors listed in between brackets

Primary (Agric, mining) Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 Jan-23 Jan-25

Secondary (mnf,const, utilities)

Tertiary Source: BCRA and J.P. Morgan 115

On the services side, the monthly deficit narrowed, bringing

the YTD services shortfall to US$3.7bn, an improvement

from US$5.8bn over the same period last year. Seasonally

65 adjusted tourism net outflows slowed to US$609mn by May,

20 21 22 23 24 25 26 below the US$700mn pace recorded in 1Q26 and under the

Source: INDEC and J.P. Morgan 2016–2017 average of US$800mn. In contrast, the income

account deficit widened to US$1.2bn in May, reflecting high-

Overall, the expansion remains uneven, as expected, in the er interest payments and an increase in profits and dividend