Mexico weekly: Slowly but not surely

Research evidence excerpt

Mexico weekly: Slowly but not surely

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

02 July 2026

Mexico weekly

Slowly but not surely

See our full research on Economics: Mexico EM, Economics Research

Gabriel Lozano

• Banxico minutes in focus next week (52-55) 5540-9558

• June inflation to confirm benign dynamics for both core and non-core gabriel.lozano@jpmorgan.com

despite World Cup hiccups BancoMúltiple,J.P.Morgan,J.P.MorganS.A.,GrupoInstituciónFinancierode Banca

• Sentiment surveys and remittances call for a cautiously optimistic view on Santiago Homberg Saury

growth (52-55) 5540-9499

santiago.hombergsaury@jpmchase.com

• USMCA review now confirmed to take place on an annual basis J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P.

Morgan Grupo Financiero

After a week dominated by trade policy headlines, next week the focus will shift

back to monetary policy, growth and inflation. Importantly, minutes of the June

meeting and June CPI will be released. The minutes will be closely watched for any

guidance — especially in the context of falling inflation and below-potential

growth, but also as the Fed could turn more hawkish soon. The June CPI print will

also offer clues on the inflation backdrop. Finally, on growth, a mix of demand-side

and supply-side indicators will provide further insight into our recently upgraded

2Q GDP.

Banxico minutes preview

On Thursday, the Monetary Policy Committee of the central bank will elaborate on

the decision to keep rates on hold in its latest decision in June. In line with what we

interpret to be a neutral statement, we believe the focus will be on inflation

expectations in the context of the normalization in global energy prices and limited

demand side pressures. This focus would not be surprising considering the sheer