Love Actuary: #196 – Q2 26 another light quarter for reinsurance losses

Research evidence excerpt

Love Actuary: #196 – Q2 26 another light quarter for reinsurance losses

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

03 July 2026

Love Actuary

#196 – Q2 26 another light quarter for reinsurance

losses

• In this week’s Love Actuary we look at the Q2 26 natural catastrophe European Insurance

AC experience. This year started slowly with Q1 26 marking the fourth Kamran M Hossain

consecutive quarter with catastrophe losses below the historical quarterly (44-20) 3493-3780

average of $15bn. Q2, however, has picked up and has seen around ~$15bn of kamran.hossain@jpmorgan.com

insured losses globally, which is below the $20bn long-term average for Q2. Farooq Hanif

The majority of insured losses have come from Severe Convective Storms in (44 207) 742-8091

the US with several outbreaks during the quarter. Based on experience since farooq.hanif@jpmorgan.com

2023, these events have not tended to be reinsurance events, with the majority Nadia Claressa

of the burden falling on primary insurers. While profits should be good again (44-20) 7134-7613

nadia.claressa@jpmorgan.com

in 2026 for the reinsurers, there are clear headwinds on pricing to come. Our

Bingdi Fan, CFA only OW rated reinsurer is Munich Re.

(44-20) 7742-5336

• Q2 above average for catastrophes. Based on our bottom-up approach, Q2 bingdi.fan@jpmorgan.com

26 losses are likely to total around $15bn, which is below the $20bn average J.P. Morgan Securities plc

for Q2 that we normally expect. The largest events have been Severe

Specialist Sales contact details:

Convective Storms (SCS) in the US, with these likely to make up the vast

majority of major insured losses in the quarter. While SCS can be costly events Gigi Sparling - Specialist Sales -

European Financials