Russia’s fuel crunch spills south

Research evidence excerpt

Russia’s fuel crunch spills south

J P M O R G A N CEEMEA Economic Research

02 July 2026

• Ukrainian strikes have curtailed Russia’s refining capacity, leading to EM, Economic and Policy Research

domestic fuel deficits Anatoliy A Shal

• This may spill over into Central Asian countries, which are dependent on (971)anatoliy.a.shal@jpmorgan.com4561-2005

supplies of oil products from Russia

Khamza Sharifzoda

• We think the impact on growth trajectories should be marginal, yet (44 20) 3493-3571

inflation risks have increased khamza.sharifzoda@jpmorgan.com

• Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are both highly exposed to fuel supply risks, J.P. Morgan Securities plc

but Kyrgyzstan starts from a much higher level of inflation, while

Tajikistan’s inflation is still low; fuel shocks could nonetheless force

tighter policy in both

• In Uzbekistan, a third of gasoline consumption is covered via imports,

implying risks of shortages and price increases; yet, overall inflation has

been well behaved lately thanks to strong soum

• Kazakhstan is energy self-sufficient, but Russia’s refining disruptions

could trigger border-region “fuel tourism” and shortages

Ukrainian long-range drone attacks have taken a large share of Russia’s refining

capacity offline, which has created fuel shortages inside Russia and made Russia

introduce gasoline and jet fuel export bans; a ban on exports of diesel is under

discussion. To be sure, fuel product deficits during peak seasons have been a

recurring feature in recent years, but the current crisis started earlier than usual and

will likely be deeper than previous ones, as a larger portion of capacity has been

knocked out. Russia’s refining output was down 13.5%oya in May and the decline

likely deepened in June.