Engie: Gaining momentum. H1 26 preview

Research evidence excerpt

Engie: Gaining momentum. H1 26 preview

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

02 July 2026

Engie Overweight

ENGIE.PA, ENGI FP

Gaining momentum. H1 26 preview Price (01 Jul 26):€26.55

Price Target (Dec-27):€32.00

We expect H1 results to confirm the improving earnings momentum for the European Utilities & Clean Energy

ACcompany, which was conservatively anticipated by management in the Q1 Javier Garrido

conference call. We see EBIT ex-nuclear moving from -8% yoy in Q1 to flat yoy (34-91) 516-1557

in H1 (which means -3% yoy ex UKPN, a better illustration of the lfl acceleration javier.x.garrido@jpmorgan.com

in earnings that we estimate for Q2). We also estimate a flat yoy H1 26 adjusted net J.P. Morgan Securities plc

income at €2.9bn, which supports, and even creates upside risk, our FY26 estimate Specialist Sales contact details:

of €5.18bn , which is at the top of the guidance range and 4% above-average

Ian Mitchell - Specialist Sales -Bloomberg consensus. While the uncertain outlook for European gas prices will European Energy

likely mean that management will prefer to remain reasonably conservative on (44-20) 7134-1356

guidance, we do not rule out that Engie raises its net income guidance to the upper ian.e.mitchell@jpmorgan.com

half of the €4.6-5.2bn range.

• We see Power Generation still double-digit down yoy. In Renewables, we

expect capacity additions to continue to offset lower hedged prices, with fx

being a smaller headwind than in Q1. However, flex gen should still be

significantly down yoy, partially due to asset disposals and the positive one-

offs booked in H1 2025. Yet the Q2 underlying trend should improve vs the Q1

print as the company starts to benefit from higher utilization rates in Europe and

more robust clean spark spreads than in Q2 2025.