U.S. Automotive: June Auto Sales – No VAR Needed

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Automotive: June Auto Sales – No VAR Needed

J P M O R G A N North America Credit Research

02 July 2026

U.S. Automotive

June Auto Sales – No VAR Needed

Domestic light vehicle sales for the month of June came in at an annualized US Autos Credit Research

ACselling rate of ~16.5 million per Omdia (formerly Wards Automotive), Evan Piascik

healthily above the 16.1 million Bloomberg-compiled median consensus (1-212) 834-4432

estimate. June’s SAAR increased ~4% on a y/y basis and ~3% sequentially, driven evan.piascik@jpmchase.com

by a (surprisingly) resilient consumer combined with higher sales into the fleet Avi Steiner, CFA AC

channel. Sales were supported by higher incentives on a y/y basis (+2%), though (1-212) 270-5512

spending declined ~1% sequentially. Recall that June 2025 auto sales (~15.3 avi.a.steiner@jpmorgan.com

million SAAR) were impacted by subsiding pre-buying activity following the auto Max Berman

tariff implementation in early April. The June 2026 print puts SAAR at ~15.8 (1-212) 834-2380

max.berman@jpmorgan.com

million through the first six months of the year, above S&P Global Mobility’s full- J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

year estimate of 15.7 million (down from earlier estimates of 16.0 million at the

beginning of the year and 15.8 million most recently) and in line with Cox

Automotive’s 15.8 million projection (although we recognize that significant

winter weather played a factor in two out of the six months so far in 2026). We

suspect that tax return season, and the continued receipt of refunds that were

generally thought to be higher y/y, have supported consumer spending, particularly

in April and May, and likely tapered off in June. Overall ATPs increased ~1% y/y

and m/m net of industry incentive spending. Days’ supply rose 2 days sequentially