German reform momentum gathers pace

Research evidence excerpt

German reform momentum gathers pace

J P M O R G A N Europe Economic Research

02 July 2026

German reform momentum

gathers pace

Last week, we noted that the German government has a real opportunity to change Economic and Policy Research

the negative narrative around its fiscal and reform effort. This is crucial if the fiscal Greg Fuzesi

stimulus is to have a more lasting impact through an increase in private capex, (44-20) 7134-8310

which has remained depressed. Near-term growth is likely to pick up as energy greg.x.fuzesi@jpmorgan.com

drags fade, which should help to improve perceptions around the economy and its J.P. Morgan Securities plc

outlook. A more lasting pick-up in the economy requires more decisive structural

reforms, which are now coming through.

Building on last week’s positive reception of the proposals by the Pension

Commission, the government has today presented a long list of further reforms.

There are 33 separate items, with further reform proposals in the pipeline for the

summer. This comes on top of a commitment made today to turn all 33 proposals

from the Pension Commission into law by the end of this year, and to also rapidly

pass an earlier agreement on a large health reform package.

Today’s agreement covers a large number of areas. No single measure comes close

to the scope of the proposed pension reform, but many smaller measures can also

add up to a larger shift. A few specific points are worth highlighting:

• Tax reform. Tax cuts for low/middle incomes are worth €10bn (0.2% of GDP),

but will mainly be financed by higher taxes on those with high incomes. The

impact on the deficit is likely to be negligible. There will be a follow-up over

the summer focused on simplifying the tax system.

• Labour market. A number of reforms were agreed.