ASEAN

Research evidence excerpt

ASEAN

shock, sharp IDR depreciation, and policy

ports our view. We have raised our 2026 GDP growth forecast

headwinds. We maintain our 2026 GDP growth forecast of

for Thailand substantially, further above the consensus fore-

4.7% for Indonesia (Consensus: 5.0%), but raise our Thailand

cast, but maintained our cautious views for Indonesia and the

forecast sharply further (more below).

Philippines, after upgrades in Singapore and Malaysia earlier.

Figure 1: ASEAN - Manufacturing PMI - Output

Next week, we will closely watch CPI data in Thailand (Mon- Diffusion index

day) and the Philippines (Tuesday), where we expect inflation 65

to undershoot consensus forecasts again. FX reserve data

from Indonesia (Tuesday) will be critical to watch after a

warning from Fitch on the potential credit rating downgrade.

We will watch out for any hawkish signals from the BNM 50

(Thursday), given our 25bp hike forecast for November. 45 ID PH

40 TH MY

BNM preview: A neutral hold 35

Jun-23 Dec-23 Jun-24 Dec-24 Jun-25 Dec-25 Jun-26

We expect BNM to hold its policy rate at 2.75%. The central Source: S&P Global, J.P. Morgan

bank should express relief about the subsiding of geopolitical

tensions in the Middle East and the accompanying decline in Thailand: Brighter growth outlook ...

oil prices, but still stress that uncertainty remains high. As a

result, we expect it to keep its 2026 growth projection Economic activity data in May point to some resilience even

unchanged at 4-5%oya (J.P. Morgan: 5.0%), but underscore before the easing of tensions in the Middle East, but is also in

its resilience to energy headwinds amid strong tech exports. line with our view that Thailand will be less affected by the

Overall, we expect the tone to be neutral. The central bank energy shocks than most feared.