Korea: Asia Pacific Economic Research

Research evidence excerpt

Korea: Asia Pacific Economic Research

Seok Gil Park (82-2) 758-5509 Asia Pacific Economic Research J P M O R G A Nseok.g.park@jpmchase.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Seoul Branch 02 July 2026

Jooeun Kim (82-2) 758-5512

jooeun.kim@jpmorgan.com

Korea autos, steel, and machinery all posting gains. Imports also

increased, suggesting crude oil import volumes are normaliz-

• Tech-led boom pushes exports to new record high in ing and supply bottlenecks in energy and petrochemicals are

June easing. With exports outpacing imports, the customs trade

surplus reached another historic high, though the real growth

• IP and PMI data suggest balanced risks to our 2Q contribution from net exports is likely to be smaller than the

GDP growth forecast (2.0%q/q, saar)

nominal trade balance improvement implies.

Korea’s latest data present a mixed but broadly balanced pic-

ture for 2Q growth: customs exports surged to a new record in IP and PMI suggest balanced risks to 2Q

June, led by the tech boom and supported by a broader recov-

May IP and June manufacturing PMI both point to a clear

ery in non-tech exports, while May IP and June manufactur-

moderation in manufacturing momentum in 2Q after the

ing PMI point to a clear moderation in real-side manufactur-

exceptionally strong 1Q surge (Figure 2). Industrial produc-

ing momentum after the exceptionally strong 1Q. The gap

tion fell more than expected in May, marking a second con-

between very strong nominal exports and softer production/

secutive monthly decline, while the PMI eased from May’s

export-volume indicators suggests price effects remain impor-

elevated level, with output, future output, employment, and

tant, and tech-driven growth has cooled sequentially from its

new orders all softening. These data reinforce the view that