ABF: A not-so-sweet guidance decrease

Research evidence excerpt

ABF: A not-so-sweet guidance decrease

2 July 2026

William Woods

+44 20 7676 6806

European General Retail william.woods@bernsteinsg.com

Richard TrainorAssociated British Foods PLC

+44 20 7762 1050

Rating richard.trainor@bernsteinsg.com

Market-Perform Alice Buckley

+44 20 7676 6739

Price Target alice.buckley@bernsteinsg.com

ABF.LN 1,800.00 GBp Rhea Gudiwala

+44 20 7676 7293

rhea.gudiwala@bernsteinsg.com

Specialist Sales

Alix Turner

+44 20 7762 4044ABF: A not-so-sweet guidance decrease alix.turner@bernsteinsg.com

ABF reported a soft set of Q3-26 results. Primark LFLs continue to trend negatively Close Date 1 Jul 2026

at -2.5%, particularly driven by European performance in the face of a weak consumer.

ABF.LN Close Price (GBp) 1,923.50

However, it was the sugar business that drove weakness on the day, on the back of a

Price Target (GBp) 1,800.00

guidance downgrade to EBIT loss of -£20m to -£60m due to a deterioration in the business

Upside/(Downside) (6)%

performance and greater uncertainty around the moving parts. We think this will continue

52-Week Range 2,351.00/1,729.50

to weight on the investment story over the next 12-18 months and with weakness in

EDME 1,589.34

both parts of the business, the split is unlikely to create short-term value.

FYE Aug

Primark saw significant divergence in performance across geographies. UK trading Div Yield 3.3%

was stronger than other regions, benefitting for strategic initiatives in womenswear and Market Cap (GBP) (M) 13,537

strength in the activewear. Across Europe, Iberia continues to demonstrate resilience whilst EV (GBp) (M) 16,722

France has been more challenged in the face of greater competition, and Northern European Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

faces greater macro pressures on the consumer.