Indonesia: Inflation accelerated in June, while the trade balance swung to a deficit in May

Research evidence excerpt

Indonesia: Inflation accelerated in June, while the trade balance swung to a deficit in May

Global Markets Research

1 July 2026Asia Insights

Economics - Asia ex-Japan

Research AnalystsIndonesia: Inflation accelerated in June, while the

Asia Economicstrade balance swung to a deficit in May

Euben Paracuelles - NSL

• CPI inflation rose to 3.34% y-o-y in June from 3.08%, led by rising non-subsidized fuel euben.paracuelles@nomura.com

prices and airfares. Core inflation edged up, due to limited energy shock pass-through. +65 6433 6956

Nabila Amani - NSL • We maintain our 2026 average headline inflation forecast of 3.10%, penciling in a nabila.amani@nomura.com

declining trajectory in H2, though we continue to flag risks from El Niño. +65 6433 6409

• The goods trade surplus swung to a deficit of USD1.6bn in May from a small surplus of

USD0.1bn in April, as exports declined, while oil and gas imports increased further.

• We reiterate our 2026 current account deficit (CAD) forecast of 2.0% of GDP, widening

from 0.1% in 2025, with export growth likely to slow further.

• We expect BI to hike by another 50bp, delivering 25bp at each of the July and

September meetings, but acknowledge uncertainty remains high.

Transportation and food prices pushed headline inflation higher in June

Headline CPI inflation rose to 3.34% y-o-y in June from 3.08% in May, close to our

forecast but slightly higher than consensus’ estimates (Consensus: 3.22%; Nomura:

3.43%). Transportation inflation increased, reflecting higher non-subsidized fuel prices and

airfares due to higher global crude oil prices and the school holiday season. Food prices

also remained high, particularly on key items such as shallots, chillies and rice, due to

reduced supply amid the end of the harvest season, in our view.