Updating our forecasts: We expect profits to beat guidance

Research evidence excerpt

Updating our forecasts: We expect profits to beat guidance

Global Markets Research

1 July 2026Shionogi

4507.T 4507 JP / EQUITY: JAPAN PHARMACEUTICALS

Rating

Updating our forecasts: We expect profits to beat guidance Remains Neutral

Target price JPY 3,200 RemainsWe revise our cost forecasts, forecast 27/3 operating profits of ¥230.0bn

Closing price

We retain Neutral rating, see prevalence of infectious diseases as variable 30 June 2026 JPY 2,789.0

We revise our earnings forecasts for Shionogi in light of 26/3 Q4 results. We factor in: (1)

infectious disease treatments; (2) the solid HIV franchise; and (3) higher costs. We revise Implied upside +14.7%

our risk-free rate assumption from 1.5% to 2.0% and our WACC assumption from 4.6% to

5.1%, to reflect current conditions. We maintain our DCF-based target price of ¥3,200 and

our Neutral rating.

Relative performance chart

What's new: Consistently solid growth in HIV franchise

(1) Infectious disease treatments: 26/3 sales undershot our forecast by ¥7.5bn

because COVID did not spread, unlike influenza. We forecast 27/3 sales roughly flat y-y

at ¥35.0bn on the assumption that infectious diseases will spread from summer through

winter, in the same pattern as last year. (2) HIV franchise: Prescriptions for long-acting

injectables have been rising, and so has demand. We raise our HIV-related royalty

revenue forecasts from ¥274.5bn to ¥285.0bn for 27/3 and from ¥278.7bn to ¥290.0bn

for 28/3 to reflect growth in the HIV franchise, particularly for Cabenuva and Apretude.

(3) Radicava/Radicut (ALS): We retain our sales forecasts for 27/3 onwards, but note

that income that was previously posted just to Shionogi Inc is now being allocated

across regions.