ANA Holdings: We raise our rating to Buy; fuel risks have receded, P/E is low

Research evidence excerpt

ANA Holdings: We raise our rating to Buy; fuel risks have receded, P/E is low

Global Markets Research

1 July 2026ANA Holdings

9202.T 9202 JP / EQUITY: JAPAN TRANSPORTATION

RatingWe raise our rating to Buy; fuel risks have

Up from Neutral Buyreceded, P/E is low

Target price

We expect improvements in margins on domestic routes, growth in international Increased from 3,200 JPY 4,000

passenger numbers and cargo volumes to contribute to higher profits

Closing price JPY 2,968.0Hiking rating to Buy, stock looks strongly undervalued 30 June 2026

We raise our rating on ANA Holdings to Buy. This is because: (1) fuel prices are trending downward

Implied upside +34.8%with countries diversifying their fuel procurement sources and the US and Iran having signed a

memorandum of understanding (MOU) that sets the stage for a permanent ceasefire; (2) the company

plans to introduce fuel surcharges on domestic routes in 28/3, which should reduce risks from forex

movements and high fuel costs; (3) margins look likely to improve thanks to a reduction in flights on

Relative performance chartunprofitable domestic routes; and (4) we expect the number of passengers on international routes to

continue growing with support from a rise in inbound travelers to Japan and robust business travel

demand. We also expect contributions to medium-term profit growth from Nippon Cargo Airlines (NCA),

which became a subsidiary in 27/3 and the company's focus on revenue management, namely

operating profit per employee, that was emphasized in its business strategy roadmap released in

January. We obtain our new target price of ¥4,000 by multiplying our 28/3 EPS forecast by a P/E of

around 13x, a 20–30% discount to the Russell/Nomura Large Cap (ex financials) average, which we

use as a benchmark.