G10 FX EUR

Research evidence excerpt

G10 FX EUR

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 02 July 2026

AUD The market has taken Warsh’s comments yesterday as slightly dovish, where he highlighted an

improvement in the inflation outlook, although with the move in Oil this is purely a statement of

fact. On the flip side, he once again reiterated the boards commitment to price stability. For me,

Warsh’s distaste for forward guidance makes every tier 1 data print arguably more important

than in recent times and with that in mind, this afternoon’s NFP print takes centre stage. ANZD

strong number will see the USD rally and will take AUD and NZD with it, while an inline print

should see high beta outperform. The bias has been to be long USD’s elsewhere while trying to

be long AUD on crosses. If I get any encouragement from the data, then I would look to re-buy

AUD although a strong print and a break of the 200D ~0.6866 would technically be a bearish

outcome. Close to home and awaiting the outcome of the data.

CAD US rates stayed in the driver’s seat yesterday: yields chopped around through the session, but

the net move by the close was modest following Warsh’s interventions at the Sintra conference,

with the greenback also failing to establish a clear directional break. In FX, that left USD/CAD

mostly range-bound and broadly stable, despite the desk seeing better USD/CAD supply from

corporate accounts through the day. My bias remains to be short CAD (long USD/CAD), as I

expect the Canadian economy to continue to underperform the US in the mid-term, keeping the

growth/policy impulse skewed against the loonie. All focus today will be on the US payroll

report.