Credit Calls

Research evidence excerpt

Credit Calls

J P M O R G A N North America Credit Research

02 July 2026

Thursday, July 02, 2026

Feature Head of North America Credit

Research and Strategy

High Yield Paper & Packaging: 2026 Midyear Outlook: Check the Box and AC Tarek Hamid

Reach for Yield (Arjun Chandar)

(1-212) 834-5468

We have an Overweight recommendation on HY Paper & Packaging heading tarek.x.hamid@jpmorgan.com

into the second half of the year. The HY Paper/Packaging index trades, as of June J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

30, at 8.21%, ~100bp wide to the JPM HY index. YTD, the sector has returned

-0.70%, representing the worst performance of any sector in HY. In 2025, HY

Paper/Packaging was the worst performing sector in HY. We turned to Overweight Credit Calls is our daily compilation of

in June for the sector as a result of what we believed to be adequate collective research reports from High Grade and

widening in the sector over the past 18 months in a supportive HY market. While High Yield corporate credit analysts

we acknowledge sectoral attributes that justify wider than average Index spreads and strategists.

(20%+ CCC-concentration, high leverage, exposure to oil/gas as an input cost,

demand declines in certain verticals due to GLP-1 substitution effects), we believe High Grade Home Page

the sector has more than appropriately discounted for these risks. As the market

High Yield Home Pageremains tight on a spread basis, we like reaching for yield in FCF positive

packaging names like OI and TRIVIU and remain constructive on leverage across Daily Economic Briefing

defensive end markets within packaging. We prefer levered HY Packaging to Link to US Equity Research Top Stories

levered HY Paper/Pulp as we expect paperboard and pulp prices to remain under (updated 7:30am)