EM FX

Research evidence excerpt

EM FX

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 02 July 2026

RUB More balanced flows in USDRUB yesterday as spot eased back towards 78.00. The recent

move has been mainly driven by local flows, but corporate RHS interest also added to the

momentum higher, while there was better supply by leveraged accounts. We are generally

tactical in USDRUB at the moment.

ZAR It was a fairly volatile session for US yields, which spent most of the morning rallying before

peaking just as the Sintra panel began, with many taking Warsh’s comment—“Inflation risks

have come down along with expectations”—as dovish. Yields ultimately finished the session

mostly unchanged, much like the greenback, which currently sits between the 101 and 102

levels. That said, the rand has behaved extremely well lately, so my overall bias remains to be

long the currency, and I’ll be looking to add further on a weak payrolls print today.

TRY We saw decent chunk of inflows yesterday in TRY both from clients looking to re-instate long

TRY positions with month-end out of the way. State banks are currently on the offer at 46.6950

in line with the expected crawl. We continue to monitor local flows and there are still no

meaningful signs of local retail dollarisation. Seasonally better current-account dynamics

should remain supportive for TRY in the near term. The current framework still requires

continued reserve rebuilding and supportive local behaviour, but the near-term flow picture

remains contained. We therefore remain long TRY. As long as retail dollarisation stays

contained which has been the case so far, the FX policy framework should remain intact and

controlled nominal depreciation remains the base case.