EM USD 10s30s Spread Curve Report: Another Month of Muted EM Spread Curve Flattening

Research evidence excerpt

EM USD 10s30s Spread Curve Report: Another Month of Muted EM Spread Curve Flattening

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

02 July 2026

EM USD 10s30s Spread Curve

Report

Another Month of Muted EM Spread Curve Flattening

• Flattening persists in EM spread curves led by EM HY. The EM aggregate Emerging Markets Strategy

AC 10s30s curve bull flattened by 1bp to 67bp over the past month, driven by EM Ankit Chawla

HY flattening by 1bp m/m to 81bp while EM IG spread curve remained (91-22) 6157-3281

unchanged. The EMBIG curve followed the overall muted flattening move, ankit.chawla@jpmchase.com

tightening by 1bp to 70bp, although the EMBIG Quasi curve bear steepened by J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

1bp to 64bp. Over the past month, the UST 10s30s curve continued to flatten Nishant M Poojary, CFA

another 6bp to 48bp, while the US HG 10s30s curve steepened by 1bp to 17bp. (44 20) 3493-3859

nishant.m.poojary@jpmorgan.com

• CEMBI posted marginal steepening by +1bp m/m to 57bp, but with J.P. Morgan Securities plc

significant divergence by segments and mixed trends by issuer. CEMBI Emerging Markets Corporate

Latam (-2bp m/m to 51bp) looks to have bull flattened, but this is due to the Strategy

tightening in one issuer with most of the other spreads widening over the Yang-Myung Hong

month. CEMBI CEEMEA (+8bp m/m to 68bp) was more consistent with all (1-212) 834-4274

issuers steepening, while CEMBI Asia (-4bp m/m to 57bp) average was ym.hong@jpmorgan.com

distorted flatter by a new entrant despite bear steepening in the existing issuers. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Fluctuations in the UST curve seem to be resulting in short-term divergences Global Index Research

by issuer, making it difficult to outline broader trends at the moment. Pallav Poddar