Emerging Markets Equity Strategy: June & 2Q 2026 Wrap – Fed turn, geopolitical resolution, and AI dispersion

Research evidence excerpt

Emerging Markets Equity Strategy: June & 2Q 2026 Wrap – Fed turn, geopolitical resolution, and AI dispersion

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

02 July 2026

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Emerging Markets Equity Strategy

June & 2Q 2026 Wrap – Fed turn, geopolitical

resolution, and AI dispersion

MSCI EM posted a monthly decline in June (-1.7%) even as the quarter ended Emerging Markets Equity Strategy

ACup +23.3%, the best since 2Q2009. In June, both MSCI EM and S&P500 (-1.1%) Rajiv Batra

continued to refresh all-time highs led by the AI/Tech trade, but volatility was also (65) 6882-8151

heightened due to concerns over valuation of tech heavyweights, dragging index rajiv.j.batra@jpmorgan.com

performance to negative for the month. Korean equities also saw heightened J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited

volatility resulting from large outstanding leveraged ETFs. On geopolitics, an Emy Shayo Cherman AC

MoU between Iran and the US extended the ceasefire for 60 days and provided for (55-11) 4950-6684

emy.shayo@jpmorgan.com

the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Though the terms of a final deal are still Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

being worked out, the truce has removed the most acute tail risk to the global AC Anindita Gandhi

economy regarding energy supply disruptions. Implementation risks, (91-22) 6157-3248

miscalculation, and potential re-escalations remain key tail risks but shipping has anindita.gandhi@jpmorgan.com

gradually picked up through the SoH despite sporadic clashes.