J.P.Morgan EU Energy Sector Specialist Commentary: Oil • O&G’s • Utilities • Infrastructure

Research evidence excerpt

J.P.Morgan EU Energy Sector Specialist Commentary: Oil • O&G’s • Utilities • Infrastructure

Macro and Flows

COMMODITIES - US / Iran talks make “positive progress” according to mediators.

- A Qatari spokesman said separate meetings with American and Iranian negotiators in Doha made “positive progress”. He said

further talks would be planned after the funeral of Ali Khamenei, Iran’s former supreme leader, which begins this weekend.

- US President Donald Trump said negotiators had made progress in indirect talks with Iran to move past last week’s tit-for-tat

strikes and convert their interim truce into a lasting peace, J.D. Vance agreed that discussions were going well, but warned that

Donald Trump had “a lot of options” if Iran did not comply with America’s terms for peace.

- Flows through Hormuz reportedly reached 10m bpd, meaning that with offsets through pipelines only about 3-4m bpd is now

missing compared to pre-conflict levels

- Russia launched missiles and drones on Kyiv, setting buildings ablaze and killing at least two people. Several people were

reported trapped under rubble. Russia has ramped up its attacks as Ukraine has been conducting its own drone campaign against

Russia’s energy infrastructure.

- German prosecutors charged a Ukrainian with blowing up undersea pipelines that carry Russian natural gas into Germany. The

Ukrainian government has denied involvement

- UK diesel costs tumbled by the most on record in June, with the average price of the fuel slumping by almost 17 pence to 167

pence per liter. Petrol prices dropped 8 pence per liter to 151 pence, the seventh biggest decline on record.Further falls in fuel

prices are likely to come, with petrol predicted to dip under 150 pence and diesel to get to below 160 pence if the price of oil falls

further.