J.P.Morgan | Data Assets & Alpha Group | INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

J.P.Morgan | Data Assets & Alpha Group | INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

JULY 2, 2026

20 SECONDS:

• Focus today = US NFPs. Drew’s scenario analysis is below.

• Warsh remarks enough for debasement trade (Gold+, Dollar -, Curve steeper) to roar back

• The boom in global industry through April looks to be consolidating but the retreat in oil prices and the

drop in EA inflation to 2.8% in June are a welcome reprieve for the global economy.

• The Meta news brings debate on possible rotations within Tech. It is not yet time to draw any

definitive fundamental conclusions but the backdrop on Momentum (positioning skew/exposure,

flows seasonality, previous outperformance, emergence of alternatives) means that we still see the

need for factor hedges.

• Health Care Upside Potential in 3Q on back of Midterm Seasonality, Low Positioning, and Flows

• Three key themes in our June Thematics Pulse: 1) flows into global thematics (top 3 = AI,

Infrastructure and Quantum vs bottom 3 = Blockchain, Space and EV & Battery); 2) SRI – focus on

Industrial policy; 3) Global Consumer (part 2).

• JPM Research notes that AI Demand is Supported as LLM Usage and GPU Pricing Climb;

Meanwhile, Memory Spot Prices Diverge. Nikos speaks about the need for AI rotation.

MKT INTEL VIEWS: Semis/AI bottlenecks were lower yesterday on reports that Meta is planning to sell

excess compute capacity to external customers. Overnight, the move rolled over to Asia – Memory lower

also with APPL is in negotiation to buy from China - but the desk feels like this is a very mechanical

session with factor rotation in full swing and investor engagement on the light side. Of note, OpenAI has

begun preliminary discussions about giving the US government a 5% stake.