US Auto Manufacturers: US Light Vehicle Sales Update – June Data

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US Auto Manufacturers: US Light Vehicle Sales Update – June Data

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02 Jul 2026 00:19:45 ET │ 11 pages

US Auto Manufacturers

US Light Vehicle Sales Update – June Data

CITI'S TAKE

Michael Ward AC

June US light vehicle sales ended at the high end of expectations. Tarriff-related +1-212-816-5754

pre-buying pushed the SAAR above 17 million in March and April last year, and the michael.p.ward@citi.com

payback set up easier comps for May and June. Sales in June increased 2.9% on a

daily selling rate basis (25 vs 24), pushing 2Q sales to 4.2 million units, up 0.5% and

the highest 2Q comp since 2021. The SAAR in June totaled 16.5 million, and the

fourth straight month above 16.0 million. YTD Sales were down 2.8% and our full-

year 2026 estimate of 16.15 million light vehicles assumes a 1.5% increase in the

second half. US light vehicle dealer inventory has stayed in a range between 2.5-3.0

million units since the beginning of 2024, about 1.0 million units below the

comparable average pre-Covid. Steady demand and inventory discipline have

supported positive pricing and record industry revenue.

2Q sales performance — US light vehicle sales in 2Q ended better than expected,

increasing 0.5% to 4.2 million units, the best quarterly comp since 2021. Tariff-

related pre-buying inflated early-2025 sales totals, setting up easier comps

between May and year-end. We expect the momentum to continue in the second

half; a 1.5% increase produces full-year 2026 sales of 16.15 million units.

Lower highs and higher lows — The replacement of the oldest fleet on record and

the biggest increase in licensed drives in over 40 years supports trend demand levels

of 16.5-17.0 million units annually over the next 5-10 years. Demand, by our