Aisin

Research evidence excerpt

Aisin

Global Markets Research

1 July 2026Aisin

7259.T 7259 JP / EQUITY: JAPAN AUTOS & AUTO PARTS

Neutral: We expect hybrid vehicle transmission demand Rating

From Suspended Neutralgrowth to slow from 28/3

Target price

We favorably view medium-term CAGR prospects and proactive shareholder returns, but From N/A JPY 2,500

stock lacks valuation appeal given risk of product mix deterioration on shift to BEVs

Closing price JPY 2,186.5Neutral: Valuations do not look attractive given the risk of product mix deterioration as 30 June 2026

BEV adoption progresses

We expect higher HV sales at major customer Toyota Motor [7203] to drive medium-term Implied upside +14.3%

demand growth for the company's relatively high-margin HV transmissions and cooperative

regenerative braking systems. We forecast medium-term EPS CAGR of 12–13%, slightly above

our 10–11% average forecast for automotive companies under our coverage. We estimate that

the company's content per vehicle (CPV) for BEVs (battery electric vehicles) is approximately Relative performance chart

0.9–1.0x its CPV for ICE vehicles and around 0.8–0.9x its CPV for HVs (Figure 1). BEV sales

have begun to reaccelerate in China, driven by higher crude oil prices, while increased clean

energy vehicle (CEV) subsidies in Japan are strengthening BEV sales momentum. The

company's flagship BEV product, the eAxle, currently has a low in-house production ratio and

relatively low added value because the company sources the inverter, a key component,

externally. While we take into account that our medium-term growth forecast is fairly high and the

company is proactive in its shareholder returns, we assign a premium of just 5% over the

benchmark in light of the risk that BEV adoption could lead to product mix deterioration. We