June 2026 BOJ Tankan

Research evidence excerpt

June 2026 BOJ Tankan

Global Markets Research

1 July 2026June 2026 BOJ Tankan

Economics - Japan

(1) Upturn in sentiment helped by changes in external Research Analysts

environment; (2) survey results support ongoing rate hikes Japan Economics

Kyohei Morita - NSCCorporate longer-term inflation forecasts may have become less sensitive to actual kyohei.morita@nomura.com

inflation rate +81 3 6703 1395

• The June 2026 BOJ Tankan Survey showed broadly stable figures for: (a) corporate

business conditions; (b) fixed investment forecasts; (c) current profit forecasts; (d)

corporate finance; and (e) inflation forecasts. We think this will justify ongoing interest

rate hikes by the BOJ.

• The survey period for the June Tankan included major changes in the external

environment, including a memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the US and

Iran about ending the conflict, rising equities, falling crude oil prices, yen depreciation,

and progress with finding alternative sources of naphtha. All these factors other than

yen depreciation look to have bolstered corporate sentiment.

• The June Tankan suggests that corporate longer-term inflation forecasts may have

become less sensitive to the actual inflation rate. We view this as a strengthening of

underlying inflation expectations.

June 2026 BOJ Tankan Survey: Major changes in external environment during

survey period

The BOJ has released the results of its June 2026 Tankan survey. The survey period was

28 May through 30 June (with a target response date of 11 June).

The survey period for the June Tankan was witness to major changes in the external

environment, including:

(i) the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) by the US and Iran aimed at

ending the conflict;