Indian Financials, Japan Banks, AI and regional allocation

Research evidence excerpt

Indian Financials, Japan Banks, AI and regional allocation

Specialist Sales

APAC Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

02 July 2026

India, one of the have-nots of Asia, is kicking off earnings season in mid-July. Feedback suggests that many sell-sides have

apparently been pushing for the India banks trade. While the reasons seem logical (de-rated meaningfully as India being out of

favor, yet expectations for banks’ earnings revisions), therefore did not necessarily receive strong pushback, the key question

seems to be whether names like ICICI Bank (JPM APAC conviction call) can break above the range after a near 20% rebound

from the recent bottom. Contrary to concerns at the beginning of 1Q, AQ trends in India have shown resilience this quarter,

based on Anuj’s channel check. India is the world’s largest private holder of gold, which has provided some buffer. India’s benign

AQ backdrop has been already allowing historically low-quality names with AQ issues to perform better. (Yes Bank was the top 5

outperformer in APAC in June Q.) We need an acceleration in growth for a breakout. Anuj forecasts ICICI Bank’s NII growth to

accelerate to +10% YoY in 1Q (vs 4Q +8%), supported by an acceleration in both loans +18% YoY (vs 4Q +16% YoY) and

deposits +13% vs +11%. (Anuj’s sector preview is out. More below: Link) The highlight from a busy week of headlines about

management reshuffles at Indian banks was the departure of Kotak Mahindra’s CEO, which followed its acquisition of Deutsche

Bank’s India business. The departing CEO lacked experience in India, and the acquisition of Deutsche’s 150k affluent wealth

customers in India—at an 84 bps CET1 dilution—made sense given Kotak’s higher-than-peer capital levels (CET1 of 21.3% at

end-March).