Australia Rates Insights

Research evidence excerpt

Australia Rates Insights

Global Markets Research

30 June 2026Australia Rates Insights

Rates - Asia ex-Japan

Research Analysts

RBA June meeting minutes Asia Rates Strategy

Andrew Ticehurst - NAL

Estimates of the real neutral cash rate have risen. andrew.ticehurst@nomura.com

+61 2 8062 8611

• While the RBA’s June meeting minutes – released today – appeared relatively

balanced, they did note that the neutral cash rate had likely shifted higher, a hawkish

thought.

• The minutes have not, however, altered our base case, that the cash rate has most

likely peaked.

• On rates strategy, our key views are that i) the near-term OIS strip is likely fairly

priced; the 1y1y rate and 3yr bond futures yields appear a little expensive, with these

yields currently hovering around the current cash rate; and iii) the 10yr ACGB may

struggle to further outperform the US 10yr, given we think the US strip is likely

overpricing the risk of a fed funds rate hike.

The RBA’s June meeting minutes leave our policy outlook unaltered

The minutes from the board’s latest meeting confirmed that the board did not specifically

consider the case for a rate hike in mid-June, as the governor indicated at the post-

meeting press conference two weeks ago.

The minutes also reiterated key thoughts, that financial conditions “were now somewhat

restrictive, although this remained uncertain” and that there was now “space” following

earlier decisions to hike to assess how the economy was responding and the impact of

disruptions to oil supply.

The board also considered risks to the outlook, and these appeared relatively balanced.

One set of risks related to the Middle East conflict, with credible scenarios posing upside

inflation risks and downside growth risks. Another set of risks related to “persistently weak