Matsuzawa Morning Report

Research evidence excerpt

Matsuzawa Morning Report

Global Markets Research

30 June 2026Matsuzawa Morning Report

Macro Strategy - Japan

As crude oil’s decline runs its course, factors driving interest Research Analysts

rates likely to change Strategy

Naka Matsuzawa - NSC

Will US inflation expectations continue to fall? naka.matsuzawa@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 3864

-Incrudeoilfutures,thefront-monthcontracthasfallenbelowlater-datedcontracts,

suggestingthatthedeclineinoilpricescausedbyexpectationsforpeaceintheMiddle

Eastiswindingdown.

-USinflationexpectationsarealreadybelowtheirpre-conflictlevels,indicatingthatthe

marketishappywithFedChairWarsh'shawkishstance.

-IfUSindicatorspointtorenewedeconomicgrowthandWarshdoesnothintatarate

hikethisyear,inflationexpectationscouldrise.

-USD/JPYreachednewlowsforthecurrentphase,buttheTakaichiadministrationhas

givennoindicationthatitwillshiftawayfromreflationarypolicies;thisappearstobe

sustainingJPY'sweaknessandbondsteepening.

Today's Japanese market

In Japanese markets on Tuesday, this author expects equities to be strong and bonds

weak (in overnight futures trading, bonds were down 8 sen and equities were up JPY870

over OSE). In overseas markets yesterday, US tech stocks recovered, improving the

market's risk sentiment. At the same time, although the US and Iran both agreed to halt

attacks and return to ceasefire talks, crude oil prices rose again. In the US stock market,

investment-related stocks such as tech and capital goods rose, but consumer spending-

related names fell in response to higher oil prices. In US bonds, rate hike expectations

rebounded, with short- and medium-term bonds sold off, though long-term bonds held

firm. Inflation expectations rose on higher crude oil prices, driven by a decline in real rates.