Japan industrial production: May 2026: Easing of logistical issues improves automobile output

Research evidence excerpt

Japan industrial production: May 2026: Easing of logistical issues improves automobile output

Global Markets Research

Japan industrial production: May 2026 30 June 2026

Economics - Japan

Research AnalystsEasing of logistical issues improves automobile

Japan Economicsoutput

Yuki Ito - NSCIncrease in output in summer should be supported by (1) AI boom and (2) yuki.ito@nomura.com

easing of supply constraints +81 3 6703 3867

Kyohei Morita - NSC • Industrial production in Japan was up 0.5% m-m in May 2026, rising for a second

kyohei.morita@nomura.com

straight month. The easing of logistical disruptions in trade with the Middle East (the +81 3 6703 1395

closure of the Strait of Hormuz) should contribute to higher automobile output.

• The survey of manufacturers' production forecasts points to solid manufacturing

activity through July. It looks as though: (1) the global AI boom; and (2) the easing of

supply constraints from a volume perspective have been a tailwind for production of

semiconductor-related products and chemicals.

May industrial production: Glimpses of solid consumer spending

Japan's industrial production in May 2026 was up 0.5% m-m, below the Bloomberg

median consensus forecast of a 0.6% increase but nevertheless up for a second straight

month (Figure1).

The rise in output in May can be broadly explained by passenger vehicles (+0.27ppt

contribution to the m-m change) and MOS ICs (memory) (+0.19ppt) (Figure2). The rise in

automobile output is consistent with the +16.3% m-m rise in real automobile exports in

May (adjusted for inflation and seasonal variation by Nomura). Production was pushed up

by the easing of logistical disruptions in trade with the Middle East (the disruption of

transport via the Strait of Hormuz).