China: Official PMIs edged higher in June

Research evidence excerpt

China: Official PMIs edged higher in June

Global Markets Research

30 June 2026Asia Insights

Economics - Asia ex-Japan

Research Analysts

China: Official PMIs edged higher in June Asia Economics

Hannah Liu - NIHK

The official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in June from 50.0 in May, exceeding hannah.liu@nomura.com

expectations (Consensus: 50.1; Nomura: 49.8). The official non-manufacturing PMI ticked +852 2252 1082

up to 50.2 in June from 50.1 in May, also above expectations (Consensus: 49.9; Nomura: Jing Wang - NIHK

49.8). The manufacturing PMI was supported by export new orders, which returned to jing.wang@nomura.com

expansionary territory, consistent with our view of robustexportgrowthinJune. However, +852 2252 1011

this export surge was largely concentrated in AI-related sectors, which simultaneously Harrington Zhang - NIHK

drove higher imports, limiting the net contribution to real economic growth. Also, output harrington.zhang@nomura.com

price indices dropped below 50 for the first time this year, which indicates sequential PPI +852 2252 2057

inflation may have peaked as global oil prices retreat to pre-war levels. Ting Lu - NIHK

We believe the PMI improvements were partly driven by incomplete seasonal adjustments ting.lu@nomura.com

around quarter-end and expect no major rebound in Juneactivitydata. The Middle East +852 2252 1306

conflict has disrupted factory operations across raw material sectors. Both retail sales and

fixed asset investment contracted in May, as aggregate domestic demand is being

weighed on by payback effects from the trade-in program, the prolonged property slump

and a worsening of the doubleK-shapes. We maintain our forecast for real GDP growth to

slow to 4.1% y-o-y in Q2 from 5.0% in Q1. With the renewed sharp declines in investment