JPY Intraday Comment

Research evidence excerpt

JPY Intraday Comment

Global Markets Research

30 June 2026JPY Intraday Comment

Foreign Exchange - Global

Research AnalystsUSD/JPY breaks above 162 as intervention risk

Global FX Strategyrises

Yujiro Goto - NSC

BOJ Board Member Sato strikes a neutral tone; JGB curve steepens as yujiro.goto@nomura.com

concerns over being behind the curve remain strong +81 3 6703 1120

Yusuke Miyairi, CFA - NIplc

• USD/JPY broke above its July 2024 high and moved into the 162 area, reinforcing yusuke.miyairi@nomura.com

expectations that the Japanese authorities may be prompted to intervene. Attention is +44 (0) 20 7102 4145

now focused on the level around 163, with the timing potentially influenced by the

Tomoki Hideshima - NSC upcoming US NFP data and market holidays. tomoki.hideshima@nomura.com

• The risk of FX intervention remains elevated, but officials have not given the kind of +81 3 6703 1427

strong pre-emptive verbal warnings before the 30 April intervention. Any actual Yuki Kodera - NSC

intervention may come with little or no advance notice this time though, which could yuki.kodera@nomura.com

make it more effective. +81 3 6703 1281

• New BOJ board member Sato struck a cautious, relatively neutral tone at her press

conference, despite the market, which has been viewing her as dovish. The 2yr JGB

auction was solid, and the curve steepened, while markets still appear to be

concerned that the BOJ may be behind the curve on policy normalization.

Fig. 1: Market pricing for a BOJ policy rate hike Fig. 2: USD/JPY and spread between 10yr and 5yr JGB yields

Source: Bloomberg, Nomura

USD/JPY has risen into the 162 level

USD/JPY broke above its July 2024 high of 161.95 in overseas trading yesterday and has

risen to the 162 level in Asian trading session today. Following JPY-buying intervention