Brazil Fuel Distribution: Gradual exit from fuel support measures underway

Research evidence excerpt

Brazil Fuel Distribution: Gradual exit from fuel support measures underway

J P M O R G A N Latin America Equity Research

30 June 2026

Brazil Fuel Distribution

Gradual exit from fuel support measures underway

Brazil signals a gradual exit from fuel support measures, while also paving the Latam Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals

ACway for the removal of oil export taxes. The government announced the removal Milene Clifford Carvalho

of the R$0.35/L diesel subsidy, while maintaining the remaining R$1.12/L diesel (55-11) 4950-3475

subsidy and the R$0.44/L gasoline subsidy for now. Authorities also indicated that milene.carvalho@jpmorgan.com

the remaining fuel subsidies are under review and could be gradually phased out Henrique Cunha, CFA

as lower oil prices reduce the need for support measures. In parallel, the (55 11) 4950 3623

government signaled that the 12% oil export tax is likely approaching its end (as henrique.r.cunha@jpmorgan.com

expected), either through non-renewal or a gradual phase-out. From a sector Rodolfo Angele, CFA

perspective, we see the diesel subsidy reduction as neutral to slightly negative for (55-11) 4950-3888

rodolfo.r.angele@jpmorgan.com

Petrobras, broadly neutral for fuel distributors, and positive (but expected) for oil Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

exporters as the export tax is removed.

• Partial diesel subsidy removal reinforces the government’s intention to

gradually phase out fuel support measures. The Brazilian government

announced the removal of the R$0.35/L diesel subsidy component, while

maintaining the remaining R$1.12/L diesel subsidy and the R$0.44/L gasoline

subsidy. During the press conference, officials emphasized that fuel support

measures remain responsive to market conditions and are being monitored on