Medical Devices: What Matters for MedTech Heading into 2Q Earnings

Research evidence excerpt

Medical Devices: What Matters for MedTech Heading into 2Q Earnings

Robbie Marcus, CFA AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-6657 01 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

robert.j.marcus@jpmorgan.com

trends through July and provide early 3Q color, and we believe they will give

materially more detail on underlying trends than in the past to help investors frame

the go-forward trajectory. In our view, a guidance refresh that leaves very little

downside will be essential given limited near-term appetite to buy ahead of clearer

evidence of stabilization. We see risk to the current 50-70bps operating margin

expansion guidance, potentially stepping down to ~50bps, or slightly lower as

WATCHMAN and Farapulse, both high-margin products, face negative revisions

this year. Looking further out, we expect more substantive 2027 color on the 3Q call

as estimates likely need to move lower, and we think the Street’s Watchman growth

estimate should reset closer to flat—that’s what the buyside’s core question is,

simply whether growth is positive or negative for WATCHMAN next year.

• Dexcom (DXCM) –With the May 14th analyst day behind us, we don't expect

many new financial updates, so focus returns to the KPIs that matter—new

patient growth, utilization, and margins. Plus T2 NI CMS coverage timing. The

key will be whether the US can return to a record new patient quarter and deliver

positive new patient growth after 1Q's negative print (down low-single digits based

on our estimates)—more important than any sales beat, as it dictates whether the

deceleration narrative crystallizes or reverses. We'll also look for a CMS

announcement on Type 2 NI coverage, a potential TAM "doubler" the LRP assumes

inflects around mid-2027; timing is nebulous, but any decision could help support

shares.