U.S. Mid- and Small-Cap Banks 2Q26 Earnings Preview: With Headwinds Including Deposit Cost Competition Still At Play for Regional Banks, We Remain Cautious

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Mid- and Small-Cap Banks 2Q26 Earnings Preview: With Headwinds Including Deposit Cost Competition Still At Play for Regional Banks, We Remain Cautious

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

01 July 2026

U.S. Mid- and Small-Cap Banks

2Q26 Earnings Preview

With Headwinds Including Deposit Cost Competition

Still At Play for Regional Banks, We Remain Cautious

Heading into 2Q26 earnings season for regional banks, we expect fundamental U.S. Mid and Small Cap Banks

ACtrends for the quarter to be highlighted by (1) loan and deposit growth each in the Anthony Elian, CFA

mid-single digit annualized range, (2) NIMs to increase a couple bps q/q on (1-212) 622-5067

average, and (3) credit trends remaining stable overall. Although regional banks anthony.elian@jpmorgan.com

have significantly outperformed the broader markets over the past month, with the Michael Pietrini

KRX +8.2% vs. SPX -1.1% tied to the macro backdrop in our view being “just ok” (1-212) 622-0618

including industry loan and deposit growth holding up fairly well and progress michael.pietrini@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

seemingly being made on the Middle East conflict, we continue to take a more

cautious approach on the sector. Our rationale for this is led by our view that

deposit cost competition, which has been the number one area of investor

focus, will intensify from already elevated levels as (1) loan growth trends remain

solid per recent management commentary while (2) the forward curve calls for a

couple of rate hikes over the next few quarters. With the next move (or two) from

the FOMC likely being a hike, this has the impact of pressuring regional banks’

deposit costs higher before they see the benefit to assets repricing higher. Per recent