G10 FX

Research evidence excerpt

G10 FX

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 01 July 2026

EUR I have to laugh I must admit all the analysis and anticipation into month end and rarely ends as

predicted, the dollar came for sale yesterday afternoon in reasonably aggressive price action

contrary to most opinion. Anyway should be an interesting 24 hours upcoming into the US

holiday on Friday, Warsh speaks on the panel this afternoon at Sintra and then

payrolls tomorrow, anticipation is high. My take is Warsh won’t say too much in line with his

distaste for guidance, some suspicion he may sound a bit more dovish given he is voicing his

own rather than the committee’s opinion but I don’t think personally will be too market

moving. Payrolls will have more consequence, a solid number will keep the pressure on into

CPI and the July FOMC and whilst clearly there is plenty of excitement here it won’t take much

for the market to continue to run with the recent narrative in my opinion, particularly given

corrections and some position reduction in the last few sessions.

I used the dollar sell off in the afternoon to replenish dollar longs further, added back

some usdchf cash and turfed out the rest of the cable longs and in fact leaning a little short as the

Burnham bounce may not last, still have some short euros too. Retain usdzar and eurhuf on the

EM side, the latter is continuing to squeeze few more positions out as having had the trade the

market is starting to wonder if this is as good as it gets, I personally feel these are good medium

term levels to fade up to 360, the story is still in tact and there is no need for the forint to sell off

unless the world is going full risk off.