India Consumer Staples: Resilient Q1 for most：Foods>HPC>Alcobev>Tobacco

Research evidence excerpt

India Consumer Staples: Resilient Q1 for most：Foods>HPC>Alcobev>Tobacco

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

01 July 2026

India Consumer Staples

Resilient Q1 for most : Foods>HPC>Alcobev>Tobacco

We expect Q1FY27 to witness stable to improving revenue growth trends for most Consumer, Retail, Media

ACstaple names aided by gradually recovering urban and steady rural demand. We Latika Chopra, CFA

expect Packaged Foods companies to witness the highest growth, followed by (91-22) 6157-3584

HPC and then Alcobev, even as tobacco (ITC) will likely see sharply lower revenue latika.chopra@jpmorgan.com

(owing to steep taxation increase). We forecast ~12% revenue growth on average Himanshu Singh

(ex-ITC) with HONASA, VBL, NEST and MRCO, clocking high double-digit (91-22) 6157-3610

growth. Volume growth should range from HSD-DD for VBL, UBBL, GCPL, himanshu.x6.singh@jpmorgan.com

MRCO and CLGT, while we build in volume declines for ITC (cigarettes) and Saransh S Gokhale

UNSP (drag from popular segment), impacted by adverse regulatory measures. (91-22) 6157 3578

saransh.gokhale@jpmchase.com

EBITDA growth should be steady to higher (vs Q4F26) for most companies, J.P. Morgan India Private Limited, J.P. Morgan

benefiting from pricing, optimized brand investments and operating leverage, Tower, Santacruz(E), Mumbai - 400098, SEBI

Registration: INH000001873, (91-22) 6157-3000.

despite increased COGS inflation (gross margin to moderate q/q). Among our

coverage universe, the highest EBITDA growth will likely be witnessed by

HONASA, NEST, VBL, TATACONS, MRCO and BRIT. In our view, investor

focus during earnings calls (late Jul-early Aug) will be on: 1) Demand narrative

amidst growing risks to rural consumption and inflation on account of El Niño/