JPM Daily Credit Strategy Update: LQD wide to CDX IG as dealers getting longer; 2Q26 and June Month-end recap; Curveball and CD Player published

Research evidence excerpt

JPM Daily Credit Strategy Update: LQD wide to CDX IG as dealers getting longer; 2Q26 and June Month-end recap; Curveball and CD Player published

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC North America Credit Research

Nathaniel Rosenbaum, CFA AC 01 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

(1-212) 834-2370

nathaniel.rosenbaum@jpmorgan.com

JPM Daily Credit Strategy Update

LQD wide to CDX IG as dealers getting longer; 2Q26 and June Month-end recap; Curveball

and CD Player published

Dealers have been net buyers for 7 straight sessions for a total of $10.3bn net bought, the longest such period since February 2024

when we saw 8 days of net buying in a row for a total of $14.7 bn, though the overall amount of risk dealers have added over the

past 7 sessions isn’t as dramatic (figure 1). This is despite a more manageable primary calendar this week (WTD $18 bn) relative

to the last 2 weeks when supply averaged $52.5bn/week. In prior instances of prolonged dealer buying, spreads tend to widen

modestly thereafter. So far, one area where this dynamic is being reflected in particular is LQD spreads which are now screening

meaningfully wide to CDX.IG (5bp wide on a 6m regression basis, 1.8 z-score). On the other hand, VCIT is only screening

moderately wider (1bp wide on a 6m regression basis, 0.4 z-score). We believe this reflects the fact that LQD is more long end

weighted (duration 8.3yrs vs 4.6yrs for CDX.IG) as well as its liquidity which makes it a common hedging tool. The discuss the

curve aspect further below in Curveball (5s10s spread curve at 27bp, a1y high).

Figure 1: Dealers net buyers for 7d in a row Figure 2: LQD trading ~2std dev wide to CDX IG

30 Past 7d Dealer net buying, $bn 127 y = 1.2797x + 33.904

R² = 0.8165

Avg + 1 Std deviation 122

Avg - 1 Std deviation 117

10 bp 112

LQD, 107

-10 97

-20 92