China/Hong Kong Monthly Wrap: June 2026: Divergence widens - AI optimism meets macro drag

Research evidence excerpt

China/Hong Kong Monthly Wrap: June 2026: Divergence widens - AI optimism meets macro drag

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

01 July 2026

China/Hong Kong Monthly Wrap

June 2026: Divergence widens - AI optimism meets

macro drag

June saw a deepening polarization between onshore vs. offshore, and AI vs. non-AI Equity Macro Research

ACtrades. MSCI China / MSCI HK / HSI / HSCEI declined -7.6% / -8.9% / -9.2% / - Tim Huang

10.4%, while CSI300 / ChiNext / STAR50 rose 1.5% / 7.2% / 25.7% in USD terms. (852) 2800-4323

Market leadership narrowed within MXCN, with IT the only sector posting a positive tim.huang@jpmorgan.com

return. Three factors reinforced the widening divergence: (1) China’s domestic J.P.MorganMorganBrokingSecurities(Hong (AsiaKong)Pacific)LimitedLimited/ J.P.

activity weakened further m-m, leaving the non-AI trade with a fading fundamental

Erin Zhang, CFA

anchor; (2) the liquidity backdrop became less supportive after Warsh’s hawkish tilt (86-21) 6106 6328

at the June FOMC, with consensus now projecting at least one rate hike by year-end; erin.zhang@jpmorgan.com

and (3) the step-up in cross-border capital controls added another headwind to SAC Registration Number: S1730521090002

offshore sentiment. Against this backdrop, AI infra remained the dominant source of J.P. Morgan Securities (China) Company Limited

alpha, with momentum moving further up the value chain into upstream materials Rajiv Batra

(MLCC, glass fiber, gases, etc) and equipment, as well as memory, power semis, and (65) 6882-8151

optics. Catalysts included China’s RMB2trn AI capex plan, CXMT’s IPO progress, rajiv.j.batra@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited

and Micron’s earnings beat. Yet the trade also became more volatile, as investors

Greater China Economics