Nufarm Ltd (NUF.AX): Bayer glyphosate petition could reduce competitiveness of Nufarms rivals

Research evidence excerpt

Nufarm Ltd (NUF.AX): Bayer glyphosate petition could reduce competitiveness of Nufarms rivals

Nufarm Ltd (NUF.AX)

01 July 2026 Citi Research

Nufarm Ltd

Valuation

Our target price is A$2.95 per share. Our valuation is derived through a blended average of our:

• DCF valuation of A$2.51 per share; and

• Sum-of-the-parts valuation at A$3.44 per share.

Our 10-year DCF valuation for Nufarm is A$2.51 per share, and is based on a WACC of 8.8%, equity beta of 1.3, and a nominal

terminal growth rate of 0.75%.

Our sum-of-the-parts valuation is derived by comparing Nufarm’s segments to global crop protection/seed peers with

discount applied to reflect risk profile across its segments.

Risks

The key upside risks to achieving our target price are as follows:

• Agricultural risk. Normal weather conditions in Nufarm’s key geographies could result in higher agrochemical demand.

• Regulatory risk.Supportive regulatory environment wherein Nufarm’s new products receive faster regulatory approval for sale

in key geographies. This could reduce the time it takes from product development to commercialisation.

• Competition. Any ease in competitive pressures especially in the off-patent segment in which Nufarm operates could be

positive for its topline and earnings growth.

• Macroeconomic risk. An acceleration in global consumption and/or decreased trade barriers across key geographies may have

a positive impact on end-users of Nufarm’s agrochemical products and thus drive demand.

• FX risk. Nufarm’s global operations expose it to a sizeable amount of FX transaction and translation risk. Appreciation in traded

foreign currencies against the Australian dollar will generally increase earnings.

The key downside risks to achieving our target price are as follows:

• Agricultural risk.