Antipodean Insights: Bound in shallows

Research evidence excerpt

Antipodean Insights: Bound in shallows

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

01 July 2026

Antipodean Insights

Bound in shallows

• The tide goes out - "There is a tide in the affairs of men. Which, taken at the Head of Australia & Japan Research

AC flood, leads on to fortune: Omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in Jason Steed

shallows and miseries" (The Tragedy of Julius Caesar). In a year defined by the (61-2) 9003-8609

AI hardware super-cycle, the ASX 200 mustered a paltry 2.8%, marking jason.h.steed@jpmorgan.com

Australia's second-worst FY performance relative to the MSCI World Roisin Kiernan

(+22.4%) since 1996. The offshore contrast was stark: the NASDAQ climbed (61-2) 9003-6670

29%, the S&P 500 21%, and the Nikkei by an extraordinary 73%. Nor was this roisin.kiernan@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

a narrow, mega cap affair, with the Russell 2000 (+39%) and MSCI EM (+41%)

both outrunning the Mag 7 (+21%), and DM, Europe and global value all

generating double-digit gains. Australia's affliction was structural, rather than

Global EQ Performance | June-26 cyclical: a 2% index weight in Tech left us a spectator to FY26's defining trade.

Australia• Sector dispersion at multi-decade highs - At 85pp, the gulf between the Nikkei 5.6%

strongest sector (Materials +48%) and the worst (Healthcare -37%) sat at 1.9z ASX Industrials US 4.2%

Small Industrials 3.6% above the 20-yr avg, the widest in two decades, and a spread not seen since DM

2001's tech wreck. The fracture was uniquely Australian: global sector Russell 2000 3.6%

dispersion registered −0.1z, essentially at the average. This is further evidence EURO STOXX 3.5%

of the escalating internal volatility coursing through the ASX 200. The rotation New Zealand 50 2.8%