J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI: Consolidating around solid growth in June

Research evidence excerpt

J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI: Consolidating around solid growth in June

Joseph Lupton (1-212) 834-5735 Global Economic Research J P M O R G A Njoseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA 01 July 2026

Maia Crook (1-212) 622-8435

maia.crook@jpmorgan.com

respectively, after reaching multi-year highs in May. The National manufacturing PMI highlights

consumer output index ticked up, but remains the weakest

of the sectoral series. • The decline in the June global output PMI was driven by

• The 1.1-point drop in the investment (or capital) goods a 0.8-point slide in the EM, while the DM was

PMI last month only partially unwound May’s gain. At unchanged. In level terms, the DM continues to outper-

53.8, the index remains well above its recent and historic form at 54.0, well above the EM’s 52.2.

average. The index’s rapid gain from a November trough • Most of the DM economies saw an increase in their man-

has mirrored the 1H26 rebound in actual capex spending, ufacturing output PMIs last month. The Euro area and

which looks to be fueled by continued tech investment but Japan moved up 0.4-pt and 0.3-pt after dropping 1.1-point

also the start of a non-tech recovery. As a diffusion index, in May, while the UK and Australia continued their recent

the PMI’s strength signals a broad-based pick-up rather climb. These increases were partially offset by a 0.4-pt

than a narrow tech lift. Even with June’s fall, the series’ fall in the US, which was revised down 1.5-pts from its

2Q average is the strongest print since 2021. flash reading. Even with the US’s decline, it remains the

J.P. Morgan global manufacturing sector PMI summary most elevated of the DM economies we track. DM PMIs

are broadly outperforming their recent levels, and at 54.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun