A multifaceted review of momentum: Mini momentum crashes (3)

Research evidence excerpt

A multifaceted review of momentum: Mini momentum crashes (3)

Global Markets Research

Japanese equity quantitative strategy 30 June 2026

EQUITY: EQUITY QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH

A multifaceted review of momentum: Mini Research Analysts

momentum crashes (3) Japan quantitative research

Shunta Tachinaka, CFA - NSC

We think decline on OpenAI IPO delay reports has more or less shunta.tachinaka@nomura.com

bottomed, we switch to near-term bullish, from bearish +81 3 6703 1212

Makoto Furukawa - NSC

Switching to near-term bullish stance on momentum, from bearish stance makoto.furukawa@nomura.com

previously +81 3 6703 1174

We change our short-term (1-2 weeks) investment stance on momentum from bearish to

Shin Nishioka - NSC

bullish (Figure 1 ). This is because we think that momentum has more or less bottomed

shin.nishioka@nomura.com

out, with the decline attributable to reports that OpenAI would postpone its IPO having +81 3 6703 3948

reached 6% as of the 29 June closing price (Figure 2 ). We think the decline will bottom at

6% as the declines in momentum in the wake of the US jobs data, Fujikura, and Iran

shocks, which were mini crashes, were around 4%, 6%, and 8%, respectively (Figure 2 ).

We retain our bullish long-term (1-2 years) and bearish medium-term (1-3 months)

stances (see our 23 June 2026 report A multifaceted review of momentum: Mini

momentum crashes (2) ). Our long-term bullish stance mainly reflects long-term regime

switches in the external environment, including the Japanese economy and AI

semiconductor cycle, and we assume the long-term regime represents structural change

that is hard to change. Our medium-term bearish stance is based on the view that

investors will have to reduce momentum risk exposure for practical reasons to avoid