Monsoon Monitor: July to see pickup, but to be below normal

Research evidence excerpt

Monsoon Monitor: July to see pickup, but to be below normal

there is an 80% chance of an El Ni

ño event in Jun-Aug.

○ Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) indicate a

further strengthening of El Niño conditions during the Southwest Monsoon season.

• After a weak El Niño in June, IMD expectation of El Niño progress:

○ July and August – Weak to Moderate El Niño

○ September – Strong El Niño

○ We note it is more important to monitor the way El Niño is progressing; for the

most important part of the monsoon season, it is expected to be weak-to-

moderate.

• Neutral IOD conditions currently but could turn Positive – which could be good.

○ While IMD expects IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) to remain neutral through the monsoon

season, most of the international agencies/models such as IRI (International Research

Institute for Climate and Society) and NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble)

that work closely with WMO (World Meteorological Organisation) and NOAA (National

Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) indicate an increasing possibility of a positive

IOD from July and a high (>70-80%) probability for it to be positive in August and

September, which could negate the impact of El Niño.

Impact on Consumer categories:

• We note, that this phase is after 18 months of La Niña conditions (cooler summers, excess

monsoons, and colder winters).

• A harsher summer and below-normal rainfall are likely to benefit summer-centric categories

such as soaps, sunscreen, deo/perfumes, glucose, talc, cooling hair oils, soft drinks, juices,

packaged water, and ice cream.

• However, given the increasing probability of warmer winters, winter portfolios such as cold

creams / lotions and Chyawanprash could see an impact.

Regional rainfall distribution forecast: (Fig.11)