US: Manufacturing growth decelerated slightly in June

Research evidence excerpt

US: Manufacturing growth decelerated slightly in June

J P M O R G A N North America Economic Research

01 July 2026

US: Manufacturing growth

decelerated slightly in June

• Manufacturing surveys moderated in June after recent improvement but Economic and Policy Research

remained solid by current-cycle standards Abiel Reinhart

• Price pressures eased from May’s peak, though they remain elevated (1-617)abiel.reinhart@jpmchase.com712 9122

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA• Employment signals were mixed: the ISM employment index continued to

improve, broadly consistent with the recent small improvement in

manufacturing payrolls, while the PMI employment index fell to a cycle

low

Manufacturing surveys showed signs of moderation in June after the recent surge

in activity. The ISM manufacturing composite edged down from a cycle high of

54.0 in May to 53.3, while the final manufacturing PMI fell to 53.9 from its flash

estimate of 55.7 and 55.1 in May. Even so, both readings remain elevated and

continue to signal solid manufacturing growth through 2Q. Survey details were

broadly consistent with recent months, pointing to ongoing precautionary demand,

tariff-related uncertainty, and conflict-linked inflation pressures. The PMI press

release noted that “despite the recent drop in energy prices and brighter outlook for

shipping, business confidence has fallen sharply, in part reflecting concerns that an

end to war-related inventory building could start to act as a drag on sales.” The PMI

press release has been hitting on this theme for a while, namely that the Middle East

conflict and associated high energy prices could have actually delivered a

temporary lift to manufacturing, as opposed to being a drag.

In the ISM survey, new orders slipped to 56.0 from 56.8 in May, while production